Thu, 12 August 2010
Ian Gordon gives me an education on the Kondriatev Cycle and what it means to our current economy. The kondratiev Cycle is typically divided into four seasons with each season signifying a phase in the natural cycle of a capitalist economy. A spring signifies a rebirth of the economy and winter signifies a difficult period of purging all the bad debts from the economy. Winter Cycles are usually when the economy experiences a depression.
A more sensational title to this podcast could have been 'Ian Gordon predicts Dow 1000!' but I chose not to and instead chose to make the Kondratiev Cycle the focus of this podcast. Ian Gordon surely makes the profound statement that the Dow will grind down to 1000 as the equity markets are purged of bad debts and malinvestment. To learn of possible investment safeguards against such a deflationary event tune into this great episode.... and yes, we do talk about gold and cash.
Work by Ian Gordon and the Longwave Group Free to view but you must create an account... quick and easy.
Direct download: Episode_57_-_Ian_Gordon_on_Kondratiev_Winter..mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:12 AM
The long wave principle is very interesting, though from my understanding of Elliot Wave it has failed miserably as have Prechters Gold predictions. Marc Faber and others have talked about the Kondratieff cycle and it is interesting, but seems to fail to take into account that QE is what is moving the market, so I don't see how you compare a non-QE year to a QE manipulated year and then make a future prediction, as the control group has changed.