Mon, 27 December 2010
Patrick of Patrick.net stops by to discuss the housing market. Much of what we discuss has been talked about before concerning housing but in this discussion we have the benefit of a long period of hindsight. We trace the housing crash from its origins through today and then Patrick offers his version of what the future holds for us. Patricks forecasting of the future is insightful because he incorporates the failures of other nations that have faced the same dilemma as the US (mainly Japan) and we are just re-tracing their steps.
About that 90% drop in home prices... http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/12/december-23-2010-about-that-90-drop-in.html Ilargi: One of the few things that Stoneleigh and I occasionally disagree on -and there really are but a few- is the rate at which real estate prices will decline. I proudly and steadfastly maintain that it will be 80+%, while she insists it will be 90%. Once you do the math, it’s obvious that's no basis for a healthy disagreement. We basically even agree on this one. Bummer! The reactions to the fact that Stoneleigh mentioned her 90% prediction in her latest interview with Max Keiser are amusing. Not least of all Max' own immediate one, jokingly suggesting the segment may need to end up on the cutting room floor for being too extreme. Mostly, though, I've seen tons of people say that Stoneleigh is a loony doomer who has no idea what she says. Thing is, that would make me a loony doomer as well, and no, you ain't getting away with that one. Of course we see where people are coming from; no-one who hasn‘t thoroughly thought this through could possibly see an 80-90% drop in home prices, and most who have can't either. However, that's where the Big Picture enters, stage left in five......